The Barclays Wealth research team includes four groups of specialists focusing on macroeconomics, equity, fixed income and asset allocation.
We keep you informed about global macroeconomic analysis and forecasts; government bonds and corporate credit; top-down economic strategy; bottom-up stock picking and sector analysis; foreign exchange research and forecasts; property, commodities and hedge funds.
We publish research regularly as part of our flagship Signpost suite:
Quarterly Investment Strategy gives you ‘big picture’ insight into the state of the markets, from top-level strategic views to bottom-up stock picks.
Monthly Update covers the past month in the markets, individual sectors, topics in the spotlight, and the performance of our model portfolios.
We also publish stand-alone Signpost reports focusing on equities and commodities.
Please see below the most recent example of each of our Signpost reports.
With the impact of the credit crisis on the real economy becoming all too readily apparent, the obvious question now is ‘How far down?’ – are we talking a standard recession, a full-scale depression, or somewhere in between? We look at three possible scenarios – ‘awful’, ‘brutal’ and ‘catastrophic’. In summary, we don’t expect a depression, but think that the recession could be longer and deeper than those experienced in recent decades.
Barclays Wealth, 03 November 2008
How could an investor play this? We have decided to remain neutral for now on equities; but we’re looking for opportunities to get long, as we believe equities will outperform on a 12-month basis. We also now go neutral credit in our short-term tactical asset allocation (TAA). We find it unnecessary at present to make major significant changes to our medium-term tactical asset allocation and long-term strategic asset allocation recommendations, although we have lowered our modal forecasts for GDP and equity returns.
Signpost Monthly Update November 2008: How far down? [PDF, 2.87 MB]
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