The Barclays Wealth research team includes four groups of specialists focusing on macroeconomics, equity, fixed income and asset allocation.
We keep you informed about global macroeconomic analysis and forecasts; government bonds and corporate credit; top-down economic strategy; bottom-up stock picking and sector analysis; foreign exchange research and forecasts; property, commodities and hedge funds.
We publish research regularly as part of our flagship Signpost suite:
Quarterly Investment Review gives you ‘big picture’ insight into the state of the markets, from top-level strategic views to bottom-up stock picks.
Monthly Update covers the past month in the markets, individual sectors, topics in the spotlight, and the performance of our model portfolios.
We also publish stand-alone Signpost reports focusing on equities and commodities.
Please see below the most recent example of each of our Signpost reports.
When the credit crunch erupted last year, the world’s major central banks were quick to react. They had, so it seemed, almost a blank cheque to deal with the problem: interest rates could be cut repeatedly, or large amounts of liquidity fed into the world’s financial system, often via new vehicles. But, with the reappearance of a beast from the past – inflation – their options are now much more limited.
Barclays Wealth, 16 July 2008
Monetary policy may need to be tightened, but with the risk then of undermining growth. So, while we expect some sort of US equities turnaround over the summer, as fiscal easing kicks in, we are gloomier about the prospects for 2009. Accordingly, we are reducing risk and staying close to home.
A few months ago we thought that, despite a difficult macro-economic backdrop, market confidence would gradually return. And, for the first half of the second quarter, so it did, with the MSCI index rising by a little over 10%. But these gains have subsequently evaporated: stock markets are now lower than when the Fed stepped in to save Bear Stearns.
The recent gloom is due in large part to the reappearance of inflation. Central banks are now focused on defeating this beast, with interest rate cuts firmly off the agenda, despite continued evidence of macroeconomic distress.
We publish our research in two forms each month. Signpost, our full publication, provides in-depth analysis of macroeconomic and market issues, including all the major developed and emerging markets. Signpost Lite summarises our most important findings and recommendations.
Please see below for copies of each publication, plus accompanying slide summaries and video webcasts by Michael Dicks, Head of Barclays Wealth Research.
Signpost Quarterly Investment Strategy, July 2008 (full publication) [PDF, 1.8 MB]
Signpost Video Webcast, July 2008 [WMV, 20.0 MB, 10 minutes]
Signpost Storyboard, July 2008 (accompanying slides) [PDF, 300 KB]
Signpost Lite, July 2008 (summarised publication) [PDF, 420 KB]
Signpost Lite Video Webcast, July 2008 [WMV, 14.4 MB, 4 minutes]
Signpost Lite Storyboard, July 2008 (accompanying slides) [PDF, 235 KB]
Please note you will need Adobe Reader or similar installed on your computer to view the PDF files. To watch the videos you will need Windows Media Player or similar.
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